Modelling of hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 under three scenarios in order to understand what will determine the price for domestic retail electricity supply in 2030. These details are useful in evaluating the potential impact of different solutions, potential market sizes, etc.

• detailed analysis of the potential cost components that determined the price for domestic retail electricity supply in 2030.
• Based on a number of scenarios for the capacity mix in 2030.
• The project was delivered by Baringa, the independent business and technology consultancy.

This knowledge building project sought to outline a number of price scenarios for the retail price of electricity across a number of different energy vectors in 2030. This was to help build the ETI’s evidence base of the operation of future UK energy systems and markets. This was also to stimulate a discussion about the realities of 2030 electricity system operation and uncertainties about this.

This project, which was delivered by Baringa built on their existing time series of hourly supplier electricity costs for 2030. They delivered an hourly electricity price series for 2030 based on traceable assumptions for three different 2030 supply-demand scenarios.

The findings from this project helped inform two existing ETI projects. Firstly, the Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration project which sought to understand the required changes to market structures and energy supply systems in order to encourage wider adoption of plug-in vehicles and their integration into the energy system. It also informed the Integrated Heat project which developed a modelling tool to evaluate the opportunities and challenges for electric heating to meet future UK household requirements.

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