This guide sets out a new approach for anticipating unintended consequences, called the “IN CASE” framework. It was written for policymakers and communicators by the Cabinet Office’s Behavioural Science Team.
Resource
Content:
- Foreword
- Introduction
- Types of Consequences
- The “IN CASE” Framework
- “IN CASE” Reference with Prompting Questions
- Worked Examples
- Approaches for Mitigating Undesirable Consequences
- Conclusion
- About the GCS Behavioural Science Team
- References
Foreword
Alex Aiken, Executive Director of Government Communication
I am very proud of the campaigns we run and the behavioural science which supports our campaigns that create opportunities for people, recruit public servants, change behaviour and save lives. As communicators, we will all be able to recall many policies and campaigns that led to expected outcomes, and perhaps some that lead to unexpected consequences. This guide is designed to help you consider, reduce, mitigate, or even eliminate those unintended consequences. From the incidental to the significant, unexpected outcomes can greatly influence the success or failure of a campaign or intervention, and it’s vitally important that we consider them as part of any campaign or policy planning process.
Any intervention that aims to change behaviour in a complex system can lead to so-called “unintended consequences”, and as communicators, we should aim to anticipate as many of them as possible. That’s what this guide is all about, thinking through the actual response of people, communities and businesses to the ask that public service makes of them.
Never has this been more timely. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated unprecedented Government intervention into the private lives of UK citizens, saving tens of thousands of lives but also generating a wide array of secondary consequences – from mental health challenges, to missed education, to new daily habits and routines – that will likely take years to fully comprehend.
Communications is one of the five levers the Government uses to achieve its aims and deliver public policy alongside legislation, regulation, taxation and public spending. While this guide was written with communicators in mind, the framework will be useful for anyone working on campaigns or interventions that aim to change behaviour so as to improve lives.
So next time you are developing a campaign or policy with a behaviour change goal, as you work through the early planning stages, use the framework set out in this guide to identify potential unanticipated consequences – just “IN CASE”!
Introduction
All government campaigns and interventions should aim to make a difference and improve the lives of the public, and many campaigns do just that. However, campaigns and policies can sometimes lead to unintended consequences – outcomes that are not anticipated or desired.
Most Government campaigns or interventions aim to change behaviour within complex systems, and any intervention made in a complex system can lead to unanticipated outcomes. Anticipating and mitigating these consequences requires policymakers and communicators to systematically consider the behaviours, attitudes, and emotions that a campaign or intervention might cause.
Traditionally, to minimise the risk of negative unintended consequences, policymakers and communicators can adopt tools like red teaming and systems thinking to identify and mitigate potential unintended consequences. Research and insight can also be used to ensure a full understanding of current behaviours, the environmental and social context, and the barriers and motivators to behaviour change.
However, these traditional activities don’t always analyse unintended consequences on the level of how people will behave. The “IN CASE” framework supports our work, by encouraging communicators and policymakers to consider consequences from a behavioural perspective.
Our previous guide, The Principles of Behaviour Change Communications, set out how to adopt a behavioural approach to campaign design using the COM-B framework. The IN CASE framework builds on this work by setting out a behavioural approach to anticipating, understanding and mitigating unintended consequences when a policy or campaign is under development.
This guide begins with an introduction to the types of consequence from a campaign or policy, and then sets out our “IN CASE” framework for anticipating these consequences. This is followed by some suggestions for how identified unintended consequences might be mitigated, and the guide finishes with two worked examples to demonstrate how the framework might be used in practice.
If communicators are planning their campaigns using the “OASIS” framework, “IN CASE” is best used at the “Strategy/Ideas” stage to explore potential consequences of campaign approaches once an idea is under development. For advice on behavioural science approaches to be used at the “Audience” stage, see our guide, the Principles of Behaviour Change Communications.
End of Preview
Guest preview of selected publicly available resources