The use of probabilistic climate change data to future-proof design decisions in the building sector

PROMETHEUS was a multi-disciplinary EPSRC funded project. The main aims of the project were to:

• create a methodology for the creation of probabilistic future reference year weather data using UKCP09;
• create a set of future reference year weather data for free distribution and use by industry and academics;
• use physical models to identify the problems that new buildings will face as a result of climate change;
• help the building sector adapt to the challenges of climate change. 

Based in the Centre for Energy and the Environment at the University of Exeter, PROMETHEUS was one of the Climate Change and Sustainable Futures projects and was a member of the ARCC (Adaptation & Resilience in a Changing Climate) co-ordinated research network.

The outputs were used for projects such as Montgomery Primary School (the first zero-carbon climate-change-ready school in the UK) and the Technology Strategy Board's 'Design for Future Climate' projects.

PROMETHEUS Downloads

The PROMETHEUS project has resulted in the release of a number of future weather files which can be used to test how future-proof buildings are against predicted climate change. The files were created using the UKCP09 weather generator, and are available for download for free from this website, subject to terms and conditions. The weather files are currently available for 45 locations as indicated by the map on the right, each for 3 time periods and 2 emissions scenarios.

The files are in the Energy Plus format (.epw) which can be imported into most building thermal simulation software packages including IES. The files can also be opened in Excel as a comma separated variable file. More details can be found in the Read Me file (downloadable PDF).

The full methodology has been peer-reviewed and is published in BSER&T. When referencing the weather files in publications and reports, please reference as: M. Eames, T. Kershaw and D. Coley Building Serv. Eng. Res. Technol., 32 127-142 (2011)